NFLSun 3:25 PM CTEmpower Field at Mile High

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

TV · CBS

Sun 3:25 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

DEN +1.5

54%

At lock KC 20.99–20.82 DEN · KC by 0.2 pts vs DEN +1.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

P. Mahomes · KC
QB
K. Walker III · KC
RB
T. Kelce · KC
TE
B. Nix · DEN
QB
J.K. Dobbins · DEN
RB
J. Waddle · DEN
WR

Data-Driven Pick · J.K. Dobbins Over 25.5 rush yds

-110

Kansas City Chiefs

5-1 · L1

143 PF · 103 PA

20.99

Projected

Denver Broncos

5-2 · W3 · computer pick

144 PF · 141 PA

20.82

KC 52%DEN 48%

At lock: projected KC 20.99–20.82 DEN

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

DEN -0.8

KC -1.5

Total

41.8

41.5

Gap: +2.3 margin, +0.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: KC vs DEN

The model

How this number was built

KC 20.99–20.82 DEN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
DEN +1.5 vs KC +4.0 · pred margin -0.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) DEN off +0.00, def stop +0.06 · KC off +0.04, def stop +0.02 · model DEN 22.5–19.9 KC
Home field
+2.4 pts to DEN
Record
DEN 5-2 · KC 5-1
Market prior
Blended 68% toward KC -1.5 / total 41.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Patrick Mahomes
Pass 124/191, 1474 YDS, 9 TD, 4 INT
Kenneth Walker III
Rush 120 CAR, 701 YDS, 6 TD
Travis Kelce
Rec 24 REC, 343 YDS, 2 TD

Bo Nix
Pass 129/218, 1271 YDS, 7 TD, 3 INT
J.K. Dobbins
Rush 87 CAR, 293 YDS, 3 TD
Jaylen Waddle
Rec 26 REC, 276 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	KC	DEN
Points Per Game	23.8	20.6
Total Yards	387.2	276.4
Yards Passing	245.7	181.6
Yards Rushing	141.5	94.9
Points Allowed Per Game	17.2	20.1
Yards Allowed	329.0	369.3
Pass Yards Allowed	229.5	236.0
Rush Yards Allowed	99.5	133.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

J.K. Dobbins Over 24.5 rush yds

-11064%

Rushing yards · DraftKings

B. Nix Over 203.5 pass yds
Passing yards · DEN
-110
63%
P. Mahomes Over 12.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · KC
-110
59%
K. Walker III Under 83.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · KC
-110
58%
B. Nix Over 17.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · DEN
-110
58%
B. Nix Over 225.5 pass+rush yds
Pass + rush yards · DEN
-110
57%
T. Kelce anytime TD
Anytime TD · KC
-110
56%
P. Mahomes anytime TD
Anytime TD · KC
-110
56%
K. Walker III anytime TD
Anytime TD · KC
-110
56%
E. Engram anytime TD
Anytime TD · DEN
-110
55%
C. Sutton anytime TD
Anytime TD · DEN
-110
55%
A. Trautman anytime TD
Anytime TD · DEN
-110
55%

Chiefs vs Broncos prediction · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is DEN +1.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Chiefs 21.0, Broncos 20.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Broncos 48%, Chiefs 52%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day