NFLSun 3:05 PM CTSoFi Stadium

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams

TV · Fox

Sun 3:05 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

LAR -6.5

50%

At lock LAC 19.54–26.15 LAR · LAR by 6.6 pts vs LAR -6.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

J. Herbert · LAC
QB
O. Hampton · LAC
RB
T. Harris · LAC
WR
M. Stafford · LAR
QB
K. Williams · LAR
RB
P. Nacua · LAR
WR

Los Angeles Chargers

0-6 · L6

90 PF · 151 PA

19.54

Projected

Los Angeles Rams

3-4 · W1 · computer pick

170 PF · 159 PA

26.15

LAC 31%LAR 69%

At lock: projected LAC 19.54–26.15 LAR

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

LAR -7.6

LAR -6.5

Total

45.7

45.5

Gap: +1.1 margin, +0.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: LAC vs LAR

The model

How this number was built

LAC 19.54–26.15 LAR · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
LAR +3.4 vs LAC -2.1 · pred margin +6.9
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) LAR off +0.05, def stop +0.04 · LAC off -0.10, def stop +0.06 · rest -7d · model LAR 26.4–19.6 LAC
Home field
+2.4 pts to LAR
Record
LAR 3-4 · LAC 0-6
Market prior
Blended 68% toward LAR -6.5 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Justin Herbert
Pass 107/180, 1141 YDS, 5 TD, 8 INT
Omarion Hampton
Rush 80 CAR, 289 YDS, 3 TD
Tre' Harris
Rec 15 REC, 225 YDS

Matthew Stafford
Pass 187/278, 1989 YDS, 14 TD, 7 INT
Kyren Williams
Rush 96 CAR, 492 YDS, 5 TD
Puka Nacua
Rec 45 REC, 485 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LAC	LAR
Points Per Game	15.0	24.3
Total Yards	309.2	411.0
Yards Passing	190.2	286.0
Yards Rushing	119.0	125.0
Points Allowed Per Game	25.2	22.7
Yards Allowed	340.0	308.7
Pass Yards Allowed	216.2	193.0
Rush Yards Allowed	123.8	115.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

P. Nacua anytime TD
Anytime TD · LAR
-110
64%
K. Williams anytime TD
Anytime TD · LAR
-110
64%
B. Corum anytime TD
Anytime TD · LAR
-110
58%
L. McConkey anytime TD
Anytime TD · LAC
-110
58%
O. Hampton anytime TD
Anytime TD · LAC
-110
52%

Chargers vs Rams prediction · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is LAR -6.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Chargers 19.5, Rams 26.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Rams 69%, Chargers 31%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day