NFLSun 12:00 PM CTPaycor Stadium

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals

TV · CBS

Sun 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

TEN +10

51%

At lock TEN 18.41–28.10 CIN · CIN by 9.7 pts vs TEN +10 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

C. Ward · TEN
QB
T. Pollard · TEN
RB
C. Tate · TEN
WR
J. Burrow · CIN
QB
C. Brown · CIN
RB
T. Higgins · CIN
WR

Data-Driven Pick · G. Helm Over 1.5 rec

-110

Tennessee Titans

1-6 · L1 · computer pick

108 PF · 156 PA

18.41

Projected

Cincinnati Bengals

4-2 · W2

163 PF · 122 PA

28.10

TEN 22%CIN 78%

At lock: projected TEN 18.41–28.10 CIN

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

CIN -11.6

CIN -10.0

Total

46.5

Gap: +1.6 margin, +0.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TEN vs CIN

The model

How this number was built

TEN 18.41–28.10 CIN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
CIN +3.9 vs TEN -6.3 · pred margin +10.5
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) CIN off +0.08, def stop -0.01 · TEN off -0.08, def stop -0.06 · model CIN 27.8–18.7 TEN
Home field
+2.4 pts to CIN
Record
CIN 4-2 · TEN 1-6
Market prior
Blended 68% toward CIN -10 / total 46.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Cam Ward
Pass 129/208, 1179 YDS, 4 TD, 5 INT
Tony Pollard
Rush 112 CAR, 478 YDS, 4 TD
Carnell Tate
Rec 34 REC, 413 YDS, 1 TD

Joe Burrow
Pass 157/219, 1653 YDS, 15 TD, 3 INT
Chase Brown
Rush 82 CAR, 285 YDS, 1 TD
Tee Higgins
Rec 33 REC, 571 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TEN	CIN
Points Per Game	15.4	27.2
Total Yards	259.6	356.7
Yards Passing	168.4	275.5
Yards Rushing	91.1	81.2
Points Allowed Per Game	22.3	20.3
Yards Allowed	376.9	370.2
Pass Yards Allowed	245.7	253.8
Rush Yards Allowed	131.1	116.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

G. Helm Over 1.5 rec

-11063%

Receptions · DraftKings

J. Burrow anytime TD
Anytime TD · CIN
-110
67%
T. Higgins anytime TD
Anytime TD · CIN
-110
67%
C. Brown anytime TD
Anytime TD · CIN
-110
67%
J. Chase Under 6.5 rec
Receptions · CIN
-110
60%
C. Ward Over 200.5 pass yds
Passing yards · TEN
-110
59%
J. Chase anytime TD
Anytime TD · CIN
-110
59%
W. Robinson anytime TD
Anytime TD · TEN
-110
59%
G. Helm anytime TD
Anytime TD · TEN
-110
59%
T. Higgins Under 65.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · CIN
-110
59%
G. Helm Over 18.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · TEN
-110
58%
J. Burrow Under 263.5 pass yds
Passing yards · CIN
-110
57%

Titans vs Bengals prediction · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is TEN +10, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Titans 18.4, Bengals 28.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Bengals 78%, Titans 22%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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