NFLSun 12:00 PM CTFord Field

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

TV · Fox

Sun 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

MIN +3

52%

At lock MIN 22.00–24.29 DET · DET by 2.3 pts vs MIN +3 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

K. Murray · MIN
QB
A. Jones Sr. · MIN
RB
J. Jefferson · MIN
WR
J. Goff · DET
QB
J. Gibbs · DET
RB
A. St. Brown · DET
WR

Data-Driven Pick · A. St. Brown Under 77.5 rec yds

-110

Minnesota Vikings

6-0 · W6 · computer pick

125 PF · 74 PA

22.00

Projected

Detroit Lions

4-2 · W2

184 PF · 165 PA

24.29

MIN 42%DET 58%

At lock: projected MIN 22.00–24.29 DET

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

DET -2.2

DET -3.0

Total

46.3

46.5

Gap: -0.8 margin, -0.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MIN vs DET

The model

How this number was built

MIN 22.00–24.29 DET · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
DET +1.8 vs MIN +1.4 · pred margin +2.7
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) DET off +0.07, def stop -0.05 · MIN off -0.10, def stop +0.14 · model DET 23.3–22.5 MIN
Home field
+2.4 pts to DET
Record
DET 4-2 · MIN 6-0
Market prior
Blended 68% toward DET -3 / total 46.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Kyler Murray
Pass 83/125, 812 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
Aaron Jones Sr.
Rush 105 CAR, 436 YDS, 2 TD
Justin Jefferson
Rec 23 REC, 302 YDS, 3 TD

Jared Goff
Pass 150/223, 1788 YDS, 14 TD
Jahmyr Gibbs
Rush 134 CAR, 620 YDS, 7 TD
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Rec 46 REC, 525 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MIN	DET
Points Per Game	20.8	30.7
Total Yards	300.7	413.0
Yards Passing	181.3	298.0
Yards Rushing	119.3	115.0
Points Allowed Per Game	12.3	27.5
Yards Allowed	278.7	412.7
Pass Yards Allowed	180.8	313.5
Rush Yards Allowed	97.8	99.2

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

A. St. Brown Under 77.5 rec yds

-11064%

Receiving yards · DraftKings

K. Murray Over 218.5 pass yds
Passing yards · MIN
-110
63%
J. Jefferson Under 77.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · MIN
-110
63%
J. Goff anytime TD
Anytime TD · DET
-110
61%
A. St. Brown anytime TD
Anytime TD · DET
-110
61%
J. Gibbs anytime TD
Anytime TD · DET
-110
61%
A. St. Brown Under 6.5 rec
Receptions · DET
-110
60%
J. Gibbs Under 84.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · DET
-110
59%
D. Carter anytime TD
Anytime TD · DET
-110
59%
J. Jennings anytime TD
Anytime TD · MIN
-110
59%
T. Conklin anytime TD
Anytime TD · DET
-110
59%
T.J. Hockenson anytime TD
Anytime TD · MIN
-110
59%

Vikings vs Lions prediction · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is MIN +3, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Vikings 22.0, Lions 24.3 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Lions 58%, Vikings 42%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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