NFLSun 12:00 PM CTMetLife Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets

TV · Fox

Sun 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

LV +1.5

50%

At lock LV 22.11–23.49 NYJ · NYJ by 1.4 pts vs LV +1.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

K. Cousins · LV
QB
A. Jeanty · LV
RB
T. Tucker · LV
WR
G. Smith · NYJ
QB
B. Allen · NYJ
RB
G. Wilson · NYJ
WR

Data-Driven Pick · G. Smith Over 224.5 pass yds

-110

Las Vegas Raiders

3-4 · L4 · computer pick

183 PF · 197 PA

22.11

Projected

New York Jets

2-5 · L2

137 PF · 150 PA

23.49

LV 46%NYJ 54%

At lock: projected LV 22.11–23.49 NYJ

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

NYJ -1.0

NYJ -1.5

Total

45.6

45.5

Gap: -0.5 margin, +0.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: LV vs NYJ

The model

How this number was built

LV 22.11–23.49 NYJ · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
NYJ -4.3 vs LV -2.9 · pred margin +1.3
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) NYJ off -0.04, def stop -0.03 · LV off -0.05, def stop -0.02 · model NYJ 23.5–22.3 LV
Home field
+2.4 pts to NYJ
Record
NYJ 2-5 · LV 3-4
Market prior
Blended 67% toward NYJ -1.5 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Kirk Cousins
Pass 161/257, 1877 YDS, 16 TD, 5 INT
Ashton Jeanty
Rush 106 CAR, 328 YDS, 1 TD
Tre Tucker
Rec 29 REC, 474 YDS, 4 TD

Geno Smith
Pass 145/207, 1623 YDS, 10 TD, 2 INT
Braelon Allen
Rush 91 CAR, 418 YDS, 2 TD
Garrett Wilson
Rec 37 REC, 444 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LV	NYJ
Points Per Game	26.1	19.6
Total Yards	351.6	328.3
Yards Passing	276.9	231.9
Yards Rushing	74.7	96.4
Points Allowed Per Game	28.1	21.4
Yards Allowed	388.7	330.6
Pass Yards Allowed	245.1	202.9
Rush Yards Allowed	143.6	127.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

G. Smith Over 224.5 pass yds

-11052%

Passing yards · DraftKings

G. Wilson anytime TD
Anytime TD · NYJ
-110
59%
B. Bowers anytime TD
Anytime TD · LV
-110
58%
O. Cooper Jr. anytime TD
Anytime TD · NYJ
-110
58%
A. Jeanty anytime TD
Anytime TD · LV
-110
57%
K. Cousins Under 237.5 pass yds
Passing yards · LV
-110
51%

Raiders vs Jets prediction · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is LV +1.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Raiders 22.1, Jets 23.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Jets 54%, Raiders 46%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day