NFLSun 12:00 PM CTEverBank Stadium

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

TV · CBS

Sun 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 46.5

50%

At lock IND 18.74–28.22 JAX · 0.5 pts over 46.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

D. Jones · IND
QB
J. Taylor · IND
RB
J. Downs · IND
WR
T. Lawrence · JAX
QB
B. Tuten · JAX
RB
P. Washington · JAX
WR

Data-Driven Pick · P. Washington Under 68.5 rec yds

-110

Indianapolis Colts

2-5 · L3

154 PF · 180 PA

18.74

Projected

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-2 · L1

154 PF · 104 PA

28.22

IND 25%JAX 75%

At lock: projected IND 18.74–28.22 JAX

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

JAX -8.0

JAX -9.5

Total

46.9

46.5

Gap: -1.5 margin, +0.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: IND vs JAX

The model

How this number was built

IND 18.74–28.22 JAX · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
JAX +3.9 vs IND -1.2 · pred margin +9.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) JAX off +0.10, def stop +0.04 · IND off -0.01, def stop -0.02 · rest +7d · model JAX 28.7–19.2 IND
Home field
+2.4 pts to JAX
Record
JAX 4-2 · IND 2-5
Market prior
Blended 68% toward JAX -9.5 / total 46.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Daniel Jones
Pass 143/240, 1398 YDS, 4 TD, 7 INT
Jonathan Taylor
Rush 140 CAR, 587 YDS, 8 TD
Josh Downs
Rec 26 REC, 307 YDS

Trevor Lawrence
Pass 120/184, 1480 YDS, 14 TD, 4 INT
Bhayshul Tuten
Rush 94 CAR, 388 YDS, 2 TD
Parker Washington
Rec 26 REC, 416 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	IND	JAX
Points Per Game	22.0	25.7
Total Yards	317.3	359.5
Yards Passing	199.7	246.7
Yards Rushing	117.6	112.8
Points Allowed Per Game	25.7	17.3
Yards Allowed	351.9	355.2
Pass Yards Allowed	227.4	283.0
Rush Yards Allowed	124.4	72.2

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

D. Jones Over 190.5 pass yds

-11061%

Passing yards · DraftKings

P. Washington anytime TD
Anytime TD · JAX
-110
66%
B. Tuten anytime TD
Anytime TD · JAX
-110
66%
C. Rodriguez Jr. Over 6.5 car
Carries · JAX
-110
60%
T. Lawrence Over 11.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · JAX
-110
60%
P. Washington Under 66.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · JAX
-110
60%
J. Meyers anytime TD
Anytime TD · JAX
-110
59%
B. Strange anytime TD
Anytime TD · JAX
-110
59%
B. Tuten Over 2.5 rec
Receptions · JAX
-110
59%
D. Jones Over 8.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · IND
-110
59%
B. Tuten Over 16.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · JAX
-110
58%
C. Rodriguez Jr. Over 24.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · JAX
-110
57%

Colts vs Jaguars prediction · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 46.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Colts 18.7, Jaguars 28.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Jaguars 75%, Colts 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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