NFLSun 12:00 PM CTAcrisure Stadium

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

TV · CBS

Sun 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

PIT -3.5

52%

At lock CLE 18.14–22.20 PIT · PIT by 4.1 pts vs PIT -3.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

D. Watson · CLE
QB
Q. Judkins · CLE
RB
D. Boston · CLE
WR
A. Rodgers · PIT
QB
J. Warren · PIT
RB
D. Metcalf · PIT
WR

Cleveland Browns

5-2 · W2

133 PF · 146 PA

18.14

Projected

Pittsburgh Steelers

5-2 · W3 · computer pick

153 PF · 138 PA

22.20

CLE 38%PIT 62%

At lock: projected CLE 18.14–22.20 PIT

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

PIT -5.6

PIT -3.5

Total

40.3

39.5

Gap: +2.1 margin, +0.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CLE vs PIT

The model

How this number was built

CLE 18.14–22.20 PIT · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
PIT -0.8 vs CLE -4.3 · pred margin +4.2
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) PIT off -0.01, def stop +0.00 · CLE off -0.06, def stop +0.02 · model PIT 23.6–18.4 CLE
Home field
+2.4 pts to PIT
Record
PIT 5-2 · CLE 5-2
Market prior
Blended 67% toward PIT -3.5 / total 39.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Deshaun Watson
Pass 136/210, 1482 YDS, 7 TD, 3 INT
Quinshon Judkins
Rush 90 CAR, 317 YDS, 3 TD
Denzel Boston
Rec 20 REC, 372 YDS, 3 TD

Aaron Rodgers
Pass 162/263, 1699 YDS, 13 TD, 5 INT
Jaylen Warren
Rush 102 CAR, 561 YDS, 1 TD
DK Metcalf
Rec 32 REC, 374 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CLE	PIT
Points Per Game	19.0	21.9
Total Yards	318.4	348.9
Yards Passing	211.7	242.7
Yards Rushing	106.7	106.1
Points Allowed Per Game	20.9	19.7
Yards Allowed	337.1	321.0
Pass Yards Allowed	220.7	230.0
Rush Yards Allowed	116.4	91.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Q. Judkins no TD
Anytime TD · CLE
-110
50%

Browns vs Steelers prediction · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is PIT -3.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Browns 18.1, Steelers 22.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Steelers 62%, Browns 38%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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