NFLSun 12:00 PM CTHighmark Stadium

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

TV · CBS

Sun 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 54.5

50%

At lock BAL 24.70–28.89 BUF · 0.9 pts under 54.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

L. Jackson · BAL
QB
D. Henry · BAL
RB
Z. Flowers · BAL
WR
J. Allen · BUF
QB
J. Cook III · BUF
RB
D. Kincaid · BUF
TE

Data-Driven Pick · Z. Flowers Under 76.5 rec yds

-110

Baltimore Ravens

4-3 · L2

169 PF · 167 PA

24.70

Projected

Buffalo Bills

5-1 · W2

197 PF · 171 PA

28.89

BAL 39%BUF 61%

At lock: projected BAL 24.70–28.89 BUF

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

BUF -6.0

BUF -3.0

Total

53.0

54.5

Gap: +3.0 margin, -1.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: BAL vs BUF

The model

How this number was built

BAL 24.70–28.89 BUF · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
BUF +4.3 vs BAL +2.3 · pred margin +4.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) BUF off +0.13, def stop -0.06 · BAL off +0.04, def stop -0.03 · rest +7d · QB change: BAL · model BUF 29.5–20.1 BAL
Home field
+2.4 pts to BUF
Record
BUF 5-1 · BAL 4-3
Market prior
Blended 68% toward BUF -3 / total 54.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Lamar Jackson
Pass 68/96, 967 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT
Derrick Henry
Rush 147 CAR, 579 YDS, 7 TD
Zay Flowers
Rec 40 REC, 608 YDS, 3 TD

Josh Allen
Pass 114/171, 1504 YDS, 9 TD, 4 INT
James Cook III
Rush 117 CAR, 627 YDS, 6 TD
Dalton Kincaid
Rec 23 REC, 315 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BAL	BUF
Points Per Game	24.1	32.8
Total Yards	383.7	399.5
Yards Passing	242.0	250.7
Yards Rushing	141.7	148.8
Points Allowed Per Game	23.9	28.5
Yards Allowed	331.7	399.7
Pass Yards Allowed	235.1	298.7
Rush Yards Allowed	96.6	101.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

Z. Flowers Under 76.5 rec yds

-11064%

Receiving yards · DraftKings

J. Allen anytime TD
Anytime TD · BUF
-110
67%
J. Cook III anytime TD
Anytime TD · BUF
-110
67%
D. Kincaid anytime TD
Anytime TD · BUF
-110
67%
N. Vannett anytime TD
Anytime TD · BAL
-110
65%
M. Andrews anytime TD
Anytime TD · BAL
-110
65%
T. Johnson anytime TD
Anytime TD · BUF
-110
65%
D. Moore anytime TD
Anytime TD · BUF
-110
65%
D. Knox anytime TD
Anytime TD · BUF
-110
65%
G. Dortch anytime TD
Anytime TD · BUF
-110
65%
J. Hill anytime TD
Anytime TD · BAL
-110
65%
J. Palmer anytime TD
Anytime TD · BUF
-110
65%

Ravens vs Bills prediction · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 54.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Ravens 24.7, Bills 28.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Bills 61%, Ravens 39%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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