NFLSun 12:00 PM CTRaymond James Stadium

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TV · Fox

Sun 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

ATL +2.5

50%

At lock ATL 21.40–23.84 TB · TB by 2.4 pts vs ATL +2.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

M. Penix Jr. · ATL
QB
B. Robinson · ATL
RB
D. London · ATL
WR
B. Mayfield · TB
QB
B. Irving · TB
RB
C. Godwin Jr. · TB
WR

Data-Driven Pick · D. London Under 77.5 rec yds

-110

Atlanta Falcons

3-4 · W1 · computer pick

171 PF · 173 PA

21.40

Projected

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2-5 · W1

162 PF · 151 PA

23.84

ATL 40%TB 60%

At lock: projected ATL 21.40–23.84 TB

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

TB -5.4

TB -2.5

Total

45.3

45.5

Gap: +2.9 margin, -0.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ATL vs TB

The model

How this number was built

ATL 21.40–23.84 TB · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
TB +1.8 vs ATL -2.6 · pred margin +3.5
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) TB off -0.05, def stop +0.06 · ATL off -0.02, def stop +0.02 · model TB 23.5–21.2 ATL
Home field
+2.4 pts to TB
Record
TB 2-5 · ATL 3-4
Market prior
Blended 67% toward TB -2.5 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Michael Penix Jr.
Pass 96/144, 1157 YDS, 9 TD, 1 INT
Bijan Robinson
Rush 131 CAR, 704 YDS, 4 TD
Drake London
Rec 38 REC, 616 YDS, 1 TD

Baker Mayfield
Pass 68/107, 679 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
Bucky Irving
Rush 120 CAR, 558 YDS, 4 TD
Chris Godwin Jr.
Rec 27 REC, 243 YDS

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ATL	TB
Points Per Game	24.4	23.1
Total Yards	351.1	315.0
Yards Passing	211.3	168.6
Yards Rushing	139.9	146.4
Points Allowed Per Game	24.7	21.6
Yards Allowed	360.3	311.0
Pass Yards Allowed	271.4	233.7
Rush Yards Allowed	88.9	77.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

D. London Under 77.5 rec yds

-11064%

Receiving yards · DraftKings

J. Dotson Over 1.5 rec
Receptions · ATL
-110
63%
B. Mayfield anytime TD
Anytime TD · TB
-110
61%
C. Godwin Jr. anytime TD
Anytime TD · TB
-110
61%
B. Irving anytime TD
Anytime TD · TB
-110
61%
D. London Under 6.5 rec
Receptions · ATL
-110
60%
K. Gainwell Over 10.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · TB
-110
59%
B. Irving Over 2.5 rec
Receptions · TB
-110
58%
B. Irving Over 14.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · TB
-110
58%
A. Hooper anytime TD
Anytime TD · ATL
-110
58%
D. Sills V anytime TD
Anytime TD · TB
-110
58%
O. Zaccheaus anytime TD
Anytime TD · ATL
-110
58%

Falcons vs Buccaneers prediction · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is ATL +2.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Falcons 21.4, Buccaneers 23.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Buccaneers 60%, Falcons 40%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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