NFLSun 12:00 PM CTAT&T Stadium

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys

TV · Fox

Sun 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 54.5

50%

At lock ARI 23.58–30.06 DAL · 0.9 pts under 54.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

J. Brissett · ARI
QB
J. Love · ARI
RB
T. McBride · ARI
TE
D. Prescott · DAL
QB
J. Williams · DAL
RB
C. Lamb · DAL
WR

Arizona Cardinals

2-5 · L1

142 PF · 208 PA

23.58

Projected

Dallas Cowboys

3-4 · W1

189 PF · 180 PA

30.06

ARI 30%DAL 70%

At lock: projected ARI 23.58–30.06 DAL

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

DAL -8.7

DAL -6.5

Total

53.7

54.5

Gap: +2.2 margin, -0.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ARI vs DAL

The model

How this number was built

ARI 23.58–30.06 DAL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
DAL +2.3 vs ARI -5.0 · pred margin +7.2
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) DAL off +0.08, def stop -0.11 · ARI off -0.03, def stop -0.06 · rest -1d · model DAL 29.2–22.7 ARI
Home field
+2.4 pts to DAL
Record
DAL 3-4 · ARI 2-5
Market prior
Blended 67% toward DAL -6.5 / total 54.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jacoby Brissett
Pass 183/282, 1600 YDS, 10 TD, 6 INT
Jeremiyah Love
Rush 67 CAR, 245 YDS, 1 TD
Trey McBride
Rec 59 REC, 472 YDS, 4 TD

Dak Prescott
Pass 178/273, 1851 YDS, 13 TD, 5 INT
Javonte Williams
Rush 110 CAR, 472 YDS, 8 TD
CeeDee Lamb
Rec 53 REC, 651 YDS, 6 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ARI	DAL
Points Per Game	20.3	27.0
Total Yards	325.6	358.7
Yards Passing	229.6	264.4
Yards Rushing	96.0	94.3
Points Allowed Per Game	29.7	25.7
Yards Allowed	370.0	380.9
Pass Yards Allowed	243.7	235.1
Rush Yards Allowed	126.3	145.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

C. Lamb anytime TD
Anytime TD · DAL
-110
69%
J. Williams anytime TD
Anytime TD · DAL
-110
69%
G. Pickens anytime TD
Anytime TD · DAL
-110
65%
T. McBride anytime TD
Anytime TD · ARI
-110
60%

Cardinals vs Cowboys prediction · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 54.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Cardinals 23.6, Cowboys 30.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Cowboys 70%, Cardinals 30%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day