NFLThu 7:15 PM CTLambeau Field

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers

TV · Prime Video

Thu 7:15 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

GB -3.5

50%

At lock CAR 21.55–25.22 GB · GB by 3.7 pts vs GB -3.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

B. Young · CAR
QB
C. Hubbard · CAR
RB
T. McMillan · CAR
WR
J. Love · GB
QB
M. Lloyd · GB
RB
C. Watson · GB
WR

Data-Driven Pick · M. Lloyd Over 18.5 rush yds

-110

Carolina Panthers

3-3 · L1

159 PF · 166 PA

21.55

Projected

Green Bay Packers

4-3 · L1 · computer pick

144 PF · 145 PA

25.22

CAR 38%GB 62%

At lock: projected CAR 21.55–25.22 GB

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

GB -5.1

GB -3.5

Total

46.8

47.5

Gap: +1.6 margin, -0.7 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CAR vs GB

The model

How this number was built

CAR 21.55–25.22 GB · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
GB +1.3 vs CAR -1.9 · pred margin +4.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) GB off +0.01, def stop +0.02 · CAR off -0.00, def stop -0.04 · model GB 24.6–20.6 CAR
Home field
+2.4 pts to GB
Record
GB 4-3 · CAR 3-3
Market prior
Blended 68% toward GB -3.5 / total 47.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Bryce Young
Pass 135/228, 1712 YDS, 12 TD, 4 INT
Chuba Hubbard
Rush 96 CAR, 459 YDS, 4 TD
Tetairoa McMillan
Rec 36 REC, 511 YDS, 2 TD

Jordan Love
Pass 162/270, 1958 YDS, 13 TD, 5 INT
MarShawn Lloyd
Rush 54 CAR, 142 YDS, 2 TD
Christian Watson
Rec 34 REC, 595 YDS, 6 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CAR	GB
Points Per Game	26.5	20.6
Total Yards	398.5	339.6
Yards Passing	293.2	279.7
Yards Rushing	105.3	59.9
Points Allowed Per Game	27.7	20.7
Yards Allowed	361.3	337.6
Pass Yards Allowed	208.2	222.6
Rush Yards Allowed	153.2	115.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

M. Lloyd Over 18.5 rush yds

-11069%

Rushing yards · DraftKings

J. Metchie III Over 1.5 rec
Receptions · CAR
-110
63%
J. Love anytime TD
Anytime TD · GB
-110
63%
C. Watson anytime TD
Anytime TD · GB
-110
63%
M. Lloyd Over 27.5 rush+rec yds
Rush + rec yards · GB
-110
62%
T. McMillan Under 71.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · CAR
-110
62%
M. Lloyd Over 5.5 car
Carries · GB
-110
62%
J. Love Over 4.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · GB
-110
60%
C. Watson Under 70.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · GB
-110
60%
M. Lloyd Over 5.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · GB
-110
60%
D. Waller anytime TD
Anytime TD · CAR
-110
60%
J. Smith anytime TD
Anytime TD · GB
-110
60%

Panthers vs Packers prediction · Oct 29, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is GB -3.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Panthers 21.6, Packers 25.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Packers 62%, Panthers 38%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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