Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks
TV · ESPN
At lock OKC 118.19–111.58 DAL · OKC by 6.6 pts vs OKC -5.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected OKC 118.19–111.58 DAL
Model vs market
Gap: -2.6 margin, +1.9 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: OKC vs DAL
Thunder vs Mavericks prediction · Oct 28, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is OKC -5.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Thunder 118.2, Mavericks 111.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Mavericks 27%, Thunder 73%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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