San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz
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At lock SA 123.93–111.97 UTAH · SA by 12.0 pts vs UTAH +12.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected SA 123.93–111.97 UTAH
Model vs market
Gap: +0.7 margin, +5.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: SA vs UTAH
Spurs vs Jazz prediction · Oct 28, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UTAH +12.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Spurs 123.9, Jazz 112.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Jazz 17%, Spurs 83%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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