Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans
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At lock DEN 122.17–118.17 NO · DEN by 4.0 pts vs NO +4.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
Data-Driven Pick · J. Fears Over 11.5 pts
At lock: projected DEN 122.17–118.17 NO
Model vs market
Gap: +1.6 margin, +1.7 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: DEN vs NO
Nuggets vs Pelicans prediction · Oct 28, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NO +4.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Nuggets 122.2, Pelicans 118.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Pelicans 37%, Nuggets 63%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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