Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
TV · Fox
At lock MIL 4.19–3.01 TB · 0.7 runs over 6.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
Data-Driven Pick · J. Misiorowski Under 15.5 outs
At lock: projected MIL 4.19–3.01 TB
Model vs market
Gap: -15 pts of win %, +1.46 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2026, 9,733 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2448 vs old model 0.2486. No free archive of MLB closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Totals now also use official game-time weather (temperature and wind in/out from the MLB feed): total-runs error fell 3.532 → 3.516 runs/game (MAE) over 2023–2026, lower in every season. A plate-appearance model (team batting vs starter/bullpen rates through a base-out run-expectancy solve) was tested and didn't beat this one, so it is not used.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIL vs TB
Brewers vs Rays prediction · Oct 28, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 6.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Brewers 4.2, Rays 3.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Rays 30%, Brewers 70%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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