BelgiumSat 11:15 AM CTKing Power at Den Dreef Stadion

Lommel SK at Oud-Heverlee Leuven

Sat 11:15 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

55%

At lock LOM 1.09–1.39 OHL · 0.02 goals under 2.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

T. Reyners · LOM
Midfielder
W. George · OHL
Midfielder

Lommel SK

3-2-3

Form DDLLW · 9 PF · 9 PA

1.09

Projected

OH Leuven

1-2-5

Form DWDLL · 6 PF · 14 PA

1.39

LOM 28%Draw 29%OHL 42%

At lock: projected LOM 1.09–1.39 OHL · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

OHL win

48%

66% (no-vig)

Total

2.43

2.5

Gap: -18 pts of win %, -0.07 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 514 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2337. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

LOM 1.09–1.39 OHL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): OHL att -0.39 / def -0.09 · LOM att -0.15 / def -0.03 · model OHL 1.2–1.3 LOM
Home field
+0.3 goals to OHL
Record
OHL 1-2-5 · LOM 3-2-3
Market prior
Blended 66% toward OHL -110 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Tom Reyners
goals 3
Tom Reyners
goalsleaders 3

Wouter George
goals 2
Wouter George
goalsleaders 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LOM	OHL
Goal Difference	0	-8
Total Goals	9	6
Assists	8	6
Goals Against	9	14

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Lommel SK vs OH Leuven prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Lommel SK 1.1, OH Leuven 1.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: OH Leuven 42%, Lommel SK 28%, draw 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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