ChampionshipFri 2:00 PM CTToughsheet Community Stadium

Middlesbrough at Bolton Wanderers

TV · CBSSN

Fri 2:00 PM CT

Games & odds only · model picks aren't published for this league yet.

Middlesbrough

6-4-1 · computer pick

Form DWWDD · 22 PF · 16 PA

1.93

Projected

Bolton Wanderers

4-2-5

Form DWLWW · 15 PF · 18 PA

1.54

MID 47%Draw 22%BOL 31%

Projected MID 1.93–1.54 BOL · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

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Total

The model

How this number was built

MID 1.93–1.54 BOL · Medium confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
BOL -0.0 off · MID +0.4 off, shrunk 58%
Home field
+0.3 goals to BOL
Record
BOL 4-2-5 · MID 6-4-1
Market prior
Blended 65% toward MID -170 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Will Lankshear
goals 9
Will Lankshear
goalsleaders 9

Sam Dalby
goals 4
Sam Dalby
goalsleaders 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MID	BOL
Goal Difference	6	-3
Total Goals	22	15
Assists	13	9
Goals Against	16	18

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

D. Strelec anytime goal
Anytime goal · MID
+160
38%
T. Conway anytime goal
Anytime goal · MID
+160
38%
K. Joseph anytime goal
Anytime goal · MID
+170
37%
M. Peart-Harris anytime goal
Anytime goal · MID
+320
24%
R. McGree anytime goal
Anytime goal · MID
+350
22%
A. Ito anytime goal
Anytime goal · BOL
+390
20%
J. Mcatee anytime goal
Anytime goal · BOL
+425
19%
M. Arfsten anytime goal
Anytime goal · MID
+450
18%
A. Morris anytime goal
Anytime goal · MID
+475
17%
J. Nelson anytime goal
Anytime goal · BOL
+500
17%
S. Iling-Junior anytime goal
Anytime goal · BOL
+550
15%
A. Jones anytime goal
Anytime goal · MID
+600
14%

Boro vs Bolton prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The model projects Boro 1.9, Bolton 1.5. Model win probability: Bolton 31%, Boro 47%, draw 22%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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