PortugalFri 2:45 PM CTEstádio D. Afonso Henriques

Maritimo at Vitória de Guimaraes

Fri 2:45 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

54%

At lock MAR 0.98–1.52 VSC · 0.0 goals under 2.5

Players

P. Henrique · MAR
Defenses
Samu · VSC
Midfield

Maritimo

2-2-4

Form DLDLL · 9 PF · 14 PA

0.98

Projected

Vitória de Guimaraes

1-2-5

Form DLDLD · 5 PF · 10 PA

1.52

MAR 23%Draw 28%VSC 49%

At lock: projected MAR 0.98–1.52 VSC · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

VSC win

64%

76% (no-vig)

Total

2.51

2.5

Gap: -12 pts of win %, +0.01 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 518 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1838 vs old model 0.2321. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

MAR 0.98–1.52 VSC · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): VSC att -0.24 / def +0.02 · MAR att -0.27 / def -0.28 · model VSC 1.6–0.9 MAR
Home field
+0.3 goals to VSC
Record
VSC 1-2-5 · MAR 2-2-4
Market prior
Blended 66% toward VSC -160 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Paulo Henrique
goals 1
Paulo Henrique
goalsleaders 1

Samu
goals 1
Samu
goalsleaders 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MAR	VSC
Goal Difference	-5	-5
Total Goals	9	5
Assists	3	5
Goals Against	14	10

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

T. Arcanjo anytime goal
Anytime goal · VSC
+390
20%
M. Bassouamina anytime goal
Anytime goal · MAR
+400
20%
N. Ogbeta anytime goal
Anytime goal · MAR
+2500
6%
I. Alani anytime goal
Anytime goal · MAR
+1600
6%

Maritimo vs Vitória prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Maritimo 1.0, Vitória 1.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Vitória 49%, Maritimo 23%, draw 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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