BelgiumSat 1:45 PM CTEasi Arena

Zulte-Waregem at RAAL La Louvière

Sat 1:45 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

50%

At lock ZUL 1.54–1.14 RLL · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

I. Átrok · ZUL
Midfielder
M. Ubandoma · RLL
Forward

Zulte-Waregem

3-2-3

Form DLLWD · 10 PF · 9 PA

1.54

Projected

RAAL La Louvière

1-1-6

Form DLWLD · 8 PF · 18 PA

1.14

ZUL 45%Draw 28%RLL 27%

At lock: projected ZUL 1.54–1.14 RLL · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 2–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

RLL win

45%

43% (no-vig)

Total

3.02

2.5

Gap: +2 pts of win %, +0.52 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 514 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2337. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

ZUL 1.54–1.14 RLL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): RLL att -0.30 / def -0.22 · ZUL att -0.04 / def -0.13 · model RLL 1.4–1.6 ZUL
Home field
+0.3 goals to RLL
Record
RLL 1-1-6 · ZUL 3-2-3
Market prior
Blended 66% toward ZUL +130 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

István Átrok
goals 3
István Átrok
goalsleaders 3

Mustapha Ubandoma
goals 5
Mustapha Ubandoma
goalsleaders 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ZUL	RLL
Goal Difference	1	-10
Total Goals	10	8
Assists	8	6
Goals Against	9	18

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

O. Niang anytime goal
Anytime goal · ZUL
+300
25%
Z. Gruber anytime goal
Anytime goal · RLL
+310
24%
A. Tajaouart anytime goal
Anytime goal · RLL
+475
17%
Y. Mbodji anytime goal
Anytime goal · ZUL
+700
13%
W. Paugain anytime goal
Anytime goal · ZUL
+1300
7%
S. Gourville anytime goal
Anytime goal · RLL
+1800
6%
M. Courcoul anytime goal
Anytime goal · RLL
+1800
6%

Zulte-Waregem vs La Louvière prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Zulte-Waregem 1.5, La Louvière 1.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: La Louvière 27%, Zulte-Waregem 45%, draw 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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