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Atlanta Dream at Golden State Valkyries

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Computer pick · Total

Over 149.5

64%

At lock ATL 75.95–77.74 GS · 4.2 pts over 149.5 · 64% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

A. Gray · ATL
Guard
A. Reese · ATL
Forward
J. Canada · ATL
Guard
G. Williams · GS
Forward
K. Stokes · GS
Center
V. Burton · GS
Guard

Data-Driven Pick · A. Gray Over 3.5 reb

-112

Atlanta Dream

30-14 · W5

4019 PF · 3717 PA

75.95

Projected

Golden State Valkyries

32-12 · W1

3615 PF · 3305 PA

77.74

ATL 43%GS 57%

At lock: projected ATL 75.95–77.74 GS

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

The model

How this number was built

ATL 75.95–77.74 GS · High confidence

Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
GS +5.6 vs ATL +5.9 · pred margin +1.8
Attack / defense
GS +3.0 off · ATL +10.4 off, shrunk 85%
Home field
+2.2 pts to GS
Record
GS 32-12 · ATL 30-14
Market prior
Blended 59% toward GS -1.5 / total 149.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Allisha Gray
PTS 19.0
Angel Reese
REB 12.1
Jordin Canada
AST 7.3
Angel Reese
rating 16.4 PPG, 12.1 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.8 SPG, 0.7 BPG

Gabby Williams
PTS 14.4
Kiah Stokes
REB 5.8
Veronica Burton
AST 5.7
Veronica Burton
rating 12.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 5.7 APG, 1.6 SPG, 0.5 BPG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ATL	GS
STRK	L1	W1
OPP PPG	76.2	78.1
Last Ten	7-2	7-3
PTS	91.3	82.2
FG%	44	42
3P%	33	34
REB	35.6	33.3
AST	21.5	19.3
BLK	3.3	4.0
STL	9.1	7.8
TTO	10.1	13.9
ToTO	22.6	24.2

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

A. Gray Over 3.5 reb

-11257%

Rebounds · DraftKings

N. Hillmon Over 3.5 reb
Rebounds · ATL
-109
57%
V. Burton Over 3.5 reb
Rebounds · GS
+103
57%
N. Hillmon Over 6.5 pts
Points · ATL
+100
57%
K. Charles Over 7.5 pts
Points · GS
-110
56%
G. Williams Over 4.5 reb
Rebounds · GS
+101
56%
R. Howard Over 4.5 reb
Rebounds · ATL
+113
56%
V. Burton Over 4.5 ast
Assists · GS
-105
55%
A. Gray Over 2.5 ast
Assists · ATL
+106
54%
A. Reese Over 2.5 ast
Assists · ATL
-119
54%
G. Williams Over 3.5 ast
Assists · GS
+120
53%
T. Hayes Over 13.5 pts
Points · GS
-111
52%

Dream vs Valkyries prediction · Oct 26, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 149.5, with a 64% model probability. The model projected Dream 76.0, Valkyries 77.7 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Valkyries 57%, Dream 43%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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