Getafe at Athletic Club
TV · ESPN+
At lock GET 0.91–1.42 ATH · 0.2 goals under 2.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected GET 0.91–1.42 ATH
Model vs market
Gap: -16 pts of win %, -0.49 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,598 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1962 vs old model 0.2044 vs closing line 0.1912. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
Getafe vs Athletic prediction · Oct 25, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 59% model probability. The model projected Getafe 0.9, Athletic 1.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Athletic 48%, Getafe 23%, draw 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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