Süper LigSun 8:00 AM CTMedas Konya Büyüksehir Stadyumu

Genclerbirligi at Konyaspor

Sun 8:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

56%

At lock GEN 0.99–1.45 KNY · 0.1 goals under 2.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

F. Tongya · GEN
Midfielder
D. Turuc · KNY
Forward

Genclerbirligi

2-2-4

Form DDLLL · 7 PF · 16 PA

0.99

Projected

Konyaspor

1-2-5

Form DDDWL · 4 PF · 9 PA

1.45

GEN 24%Draw 29%KNY 46%

At lock: projected GEN 0.99–1.45 KNY · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

KNY win

59%

69% (no-vig)

Total

2.31

2.5

Gap: -9 pts of win %, -0.19 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 538 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1951 vs old model 0.2279. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

GEN 0.99–1.45 KNY · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): KNY att -0.30 / def +0.03 · GEN att -0.26 / def -0.10 · model KNY 1.3–1.0 GEN
Home field
+0.3 goals to KNY
Record
KNY 1-2-5 · GEN 2-2-4
Market prior
Blended 66% toward KNY -110 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Franco Tongya
goals 1
Franco Tongya
goalsleaders 1

Deniz Turuc
goals 1
Deniz Turuc
goalsleaders 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	GEN	KNY
Goal Difference	-9	-5
Total Goals	7	4
Assists	6	2
Goals Against	16	9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

M. Mohamed anytime goal
Anytime goal · KNY
+195
34%
E. Bardhi anytime goal
Anytime goal · KNY
+270
27%
E. Colley anytime goal
Anytime goal · KNY
+330
23%
T. Gouveia anytime goal
Anytime goal · GEN
+450
18%
S. Ucan anytime goal
Anytime goal · GEN
+800
11%
A. Masuaku anytime goal
Anytime goal · KNY
+1500
6%
C. Awaziem anytime goal
Anytime goal · KNY
+1500
6%
M. Baltaci anytime goal
Anytime goal · GEN
+2200
6%

Genclerbirli vs Konyaspor prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Genclerbirli 1.0, Konyaspor 1.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Konyaspor 46%, Genclerbirli 24%, draw 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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