EredivisieLive 65'Goffertstadion

FC Groningen at NEC Nijmegen

65' · ESPN+

Live65'Updates as plays come in

Latest action: NEC attacking

FC Groningen

4-2-3

Form DWWDD · 22 PF · 19 PA

Live

NEC Nijmegen

2-4-3

Form DDDDD · 15 PF · 16 PA

GRO 56%Draw 21%NEC 23%

Model: GRO 2.37–1.51 NEC · live-adjusted

DraftKingsLiveas of 9:54 AM CT · tap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

NEC win

61%

64% (no-vig)

Total

3.55

3.5

Gap: -3 pts of win %, +0.05 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 529 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1983 vs old model 0.2269. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

GRO 2.37–1.51 NEC · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): NEC att +0.07 / def -0.02 · GRO att -0.06 / def -0.03 · model NEC 2.1–1.5 GRO
Home field
+0.3 goals to NEC
Record
NEC 2-4-3 · GRO 4-2-3
Market prior
Blended 66% toward NEC -110 / total 3.5
Live residual
25% of pregame scoring still on the clock

Full write-up of the model

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

53%

Now GRO 2.37–1.51 NEC · pick locked earlier at Under 3.5; model has since moved

Live stats

T. De Jonge · GRO
totalshots 2
T. Blokzijl · GRO
Pass 24
H. Hateboer · GRO
defensiveinterventions 12
E. Vaessen · GRO
SV 5
B. Linssen · NEC
totalshots 4
D. Fonville · NEC
Pass 39

Line score

	1H	2H	T
GRO	2	0	2
NEC	0	1	1

How the goals went in

GOAL2H 57'
Goal! NEC 1, Groningen 2. Clement Bischoff (NEC) right footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Darko Nejasmic following a fast break.Goal awarded following VAR Review.
GOAL1H 34'
Goal! NEC 0, Groningen 2. Brynjólfur Willumsson (Groningen) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Thom van Bergen with a cross following a fast break.Goal confirmed following VAR Review.
GOAL1H 11'
Goal! NEC 0, Groningen 1. Brynjólfur Willumsson (Groningen) header from very close range to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Marco Rente following a corner.

Game leaders

Tika De Jonge
totalshots 2
Thijmen Blokzijl
Pass 24
Hans Hateboer
defensiveinterventions 12
Etienne Vaessen
SV 5

Bryan Linssen
totalshots 4
Deveron Fonville
Pass 39
Gonzalo Crettaz
defensiveinterventions 7

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	GRO	NEC
Fouls	8	7
Yellow Cards	2	0
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	2	2
Corner Kicks	2	7
Saves	5	0
Possession	38.4	61.6
SHOTS	6	17
ON GOAL	2	7
On Target %	0.3	0.4
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	163	289
Passes	221	344
Pass Completion %	0.7	0.8
Accurate Crosses	2	6
Crosses	5	21
Cross %	0.4	0.3
Long Balls	43	42
Accurate Long Balls	15	18
Long Balls %	0.3	0.4
Blocked Shots	1	5
Effective Tackles	8	7
Tackles	14	18
Tackle %	0.6	0.4
Interceptions	8	8
Effective Clearances	23	5
Clearances	23	5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

J. Ondrejka anytime goal
Anytime goal · GRO
+275
27%
A. Thomas anytime goal
Anytime goal · NEC
+330
23%
J. Monteiro anytime goal
Anytime goal · NEC
+350
22%
M. Bakker anytime goal
Anytime goal · NEC
+550
15%
C. Bischoff anytime goal
Anytime goal · NEC
+600
14%
A. Kaplan anytime goal
Anytime goal · NEC
+1200
8%
A. Kabar anytime goal
Anytime goal · NEC
+1200
8%

FC Groningen vs NEC prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 53% model probability. The model now projects FC Groningen 2.4, NEC 1.5. Live model win probability: NEC 23%, FC Groningen 56%, draw 21%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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