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Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints

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Computer pick · Total

Over 44.5

54%

PIT 23.84–21.08 NO

Data-Driven Pick · K. Miller Over 41.5 rush yds

-110

Pittsburgh Steelers

4-2 · W2

137 PF · 128 PA

23.84

Projected

New Orleans Saints

2-4 · W1

152 PF · 178 PA

21.08

PIT 58%NO 42%

Projected PIT 23.84–21.08 NO

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

PIT -1.2

PIT -3.5

Total

45.8

44.5

Gap: +2.3 margin, +1.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: PIT vs NO

The model

How this number was built

PIT 23.84–21.08 NO · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
NO -3.4 vs PIT -0.9 · pred margin -2.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) NO off -0.03, def stop -0.04 · PIT off -0.01, def stop +0.01 · model NO 22.5–26.3 PIT
Home field
+2.4 pts to NO
Record
NO 2-4 · PIT 4-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward PIT -3.5 / total 44.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Aaron Rodgers
Pass 143/233, 1487 YDS, 12 TD, 5 INT
Jaylen Warren
Rush 84 CAR, 460 YDS, 1 TD
DK Metcalf
Rec 30 REC, 318 YDS, 1 TD

Tyler Shough
Pass 153/235, 1443 YDS, 12 TD, 5 INT
Kendre Miller
Rush 49 CAR, 153 YDS, 2 TD
Chris Olave
Rec 43 REC, 580 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	PIT	NO
Points Per Game	22.8	25.3
Total Yards	347.0	337.8
Yards Passing	247.8	240.5
Yards Rushing	99.2	97.3
Points Allowed Per Game	21.3	29.7
Yards Allowed	325.2	394.0
Pass Yards Allowed	222.0	256.0
Rush Yards Allowed	103.2	138.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

K. Miller Over 41.5 rush yds

-11069%

Rushing yards · DraftKings

C. Olave Under 76.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · NO
-110
63%
T. Shough Over 3.5 car
Carries · NO
-110
63%
A. Rodgers Over 1.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · PIT
-110
61%
A. Rodgers anytime TD
Anytime TD · PIT
-110
60%
D. Metcalf anytime TD
Anytime TD · PIT
-110
60%
J. Warren anytime TD
Anytime TD · PIT
-110
60%
T. Shough Over 15.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · NO
-110
58%
NO anytime TD
Anytime TD · NO
-110
58%
PIT anytime TD
Anytime TD · PIT
-110
58%
D. Metcalf Under 59.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · PIT
-110
57%
J. Warren Over 27.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · PIT
-110
56%

Steelers vs Saints prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 44.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projects Steelers 23.8, Saints 21.1. Model win probability: Saints 42%, Steelers 58%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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