ScotlandSun 7:00 AM CTEaster Road

Celtic at Hibernian

Sun 7:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

58%

At lock CEL 1.94–1.36 HIBS · 0.2 goals under 3.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

B. Nygren · CEL
Forward
M. Boyle · HIBS
Forward

Celtic

8-0-1

Form DWLWL · 23 PF · 5 PA

1.94

Projected

Hibernian

2-1-6

Form DLDLW · 9 PF · 14 PA

1.36

CEL 50%Draw 24%HIBS 26%

At lock: projected CEL 1.94–1.36 HIBS · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

HIBS win

34%

23% (no-vig)

Total

2.89

3.5

Gap: +11 pts of win %, -0.61 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 355 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2052 vs old model 0.2310. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

CEL 1.94–1.36 HIBS · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): HIBS att -0.14 / def +0.08 · CEL att +0.37 / def +0.34 · model HIBS 1.1–1.8 CEL
Home field
+0.3 goals to HIBS
Record
HIBS 2-1-6 · CEL 8-0-1
Market prior
Blended 66% toward CEL -185 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Benjamin Nygren
goals 6
Benjamin Nygren
goalsleaders 6

Martin Boyle
goals 3
Martin Boyle
goalsleaders 3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

B. Nygren anytime goal
Anytime goal · CEL
+150
40%
C. Osmand anytime goal
Anytime goal · CEL
+155
39%
J. Forrest anytime goal
Anytime goal · CEL
+250
29%
Y. Hyun-Jun anytime goal
Anytime goal · CEL
+250
29%
M. Boyle anytime goal
Anytime goal · HIBS
+310
24%
H. Hassan anytime goal
Anytime goal · CEL
+320
24%
L. McCowan anytime goal
Anytime goal · CEL
+360
22%
S. Tounekti anytime goal
Anytime goal · CEL
+360
22%
R. Matondo anytime goal
Anytime goal · HIBS
+390
20%
C. Wright anytime goal
Anytime goal · HIBS
+400
20%
M. Baur anytime goal
Anytime goal · CEL
+600
14%
K. Tierney anytime goal
Anytime goal · CEL
+700
13%

Celtic vs Hibernian prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 58% model probability. The model projected Celtic 1.9, Hibernian 1.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Hibernian 26%, Celtic 50%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day