BelgiumFinalCegeka Arena

Standard Liege at Racing Genk

Final

Standard Liege

3-2-4

Form DLLLW · 14 PF · 15 PA

Final

Racing Genk

4-3-2

Form DWLDD · 18 PF · 13 PA

STL 23%Draw 28%GENK 50%

Model: STL 0.98–1.56 GENK

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 24, 11:36 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1596679413

Exact score

Most typical sim

STL 1 – GENK 2

Final

STL 1 – GENK 2

Winner: Genk (51%)
Spread: GENK -0.5 covers (51%)
Total: Under 2.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)0

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

STL 0.98–1.56 GENK · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): GENK att +0.06 / def +0.09 · STL att -0.30 / def +0.08 · model GENK 1.7–0.9 STL
Home field
+0.3 goals to GENK
Record
GENK 4-3-2 · STL 3-2-4
Market prior
Blended 66% toward GENK -150 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
STL	0	1	1
GENK	1	1	2

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 27'
Junya Ito (Racing Genk) Goal at 27'
GOAL2H 65'
Andi Zeqiri (Standard Liege) Goal at 65'
GOAL2H 77'
Aaron Bibout (Racing Genk) Goal at 77'

Game leaders

Dennis Dargahi
totalshots 3
Alexis Trouillet
Pass 29
Dimitri Lavelée
defensiveinterventions 16
Lucas Pirard
SV 3

Aaron Bibout
totalshots 5
Josué Ndenge
Pass 92
Matte Smets
defensiveinterventions 6
Lucca Kiaba Mounganga
SV 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	STL	GENK
Fouls	9	11
Yellow Cards	2	1
Red Cards	1	1
Offsides	0	4
Corner Kicks	2	11
Saves	3	1
Possession	32.1	67.9
SHOTS	11	24
ON GOAL	2	6
On Target %	0.2	0.3
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	183	490
Passes	275	578
Pass Completion %	0.7	0.8
Accurate Crosses	0	0
Crosses	0	0
Cross %	0.0	0.0
Long Balls	0	0
Accurate Long Balls	0	0
Long Balls %	0.0	0.0
Blocked Shots	3	8
Effective Tackles	7	7
Tackles	10	8
Tackle %	0.7	0.9
Interceptions	0	0
Effective Clearances	0	0
Clearances	50	16

Computer pick · Spread

GENK -0.5

51%

STL 0.98–1.56 GENK · GENK by 0.6 goals vs GENK -0.5

Hit

Players

D. Dargahi · STL
Forward
A. Trouillet · STL
Midfielder
D. Lavelée · STL
Defender
L. Pirard · STL
Goalkeeper
A. Bibout · GENK
Forward
J. Ndenge · GENK
Defender

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Standard Liege vs Genk pick result · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is GENK -0.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Belgium picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day