EredivisieSun 8:30 AM CTPhilips Stadion

Feyenoord Rotterdam at PSV Eindhoven

TV · ESPN+

Sun 8:30 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 3.5

53%

At lock FEY 1.62–2.19 PSV · 0.3 goals over 3.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

G. Zechiël · FEY
Midfielder
G. Til · PSV
Midfielder

Feyenoord Rotterdam

7-2-0

Form DWWWW · 31 PF · 10 PA

1.62

Projected

PSV Eindhoven

6-1-2

Form DLLWL · 27 PF · 12 PA

2.19

FEY 28%Draw 22%PSV 50%

At lock: projected FEY 1.62–2.19 PSV · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 3.5 score 2–2

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

PSV win

63%

60% (no-vig)

Total

4.40

3.5

Gap: +3 pts of win %, +0.90 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 529 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1983 vs old model 0.2269. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

FEY 1.62–2.19 PSV · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): PSV att +0.57 / def +0.18 · FEY att +0.37 / def +0.26 · model PSV 2.6–1.9 FEY
Home field
+0.3 goals to PSV
Record
PSV 6-1-2 · FEY 7-2-0
Market prior
Blended 66% toward PSV +105 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Gjivai Zechiël
goals 5
Gjivai Zechiël
goalsleaders 5

Guus Til
goals 5
Guus Til
goalsleaders 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	FEY	PSV
Goal Difference	21	15
Total Goals	31	27
Assists	19	17
Goals Against	10	12

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Feyenoord vs PSV prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Feyenoord 1.6, PSV 2.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: PSV 50%, Feyenoord 28%, draw 22%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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