Bayer Leverkusen at OFI Crete
HT · Paramount+
Latest action: B04 attacking
Model: B04 3.87–0.72 OFI · live-adjusted
Model vs market
Gap: +12 pts of win %, -0.04 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.
B04 3.87–0.72 OFI · 0.1 goals over 4.5
Line score
| 1H | T | |
|---|---|---|
| B04 | 2 | 2 |
| OFI | 0 | 0 |
Player stats
The box score has not posted yet.
Leverkusen vs OFI Crete prediction · Oct 22, 2026
The model now projects Leverkusen 3.9, OFI Crete 0.7. Live model win probability: OFI Crete 7%, Leverkusen 85%, draw 8%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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