AZ Alkmaar at Ararat-Armenia
HT · Paramount+
Latest action: ARA attacking
Model: AZ 3.20–0.96 ARA · live-adjusted
Model vs market
Gap: +28 pts of win %, +0.38 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.
The model
How this number was built
AZ 3.20–0.96 ARA · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): ARA att -0.10 / def -0.10 · AZ att +0.13 / def +0.14 · model ARA 1.3–1.6 AZ
- Home field+0.3 goals to ARA
- RecordARA 0-0-2 · AZ 1-0-1
- Live residual75% of pregame scoring still on the clock
AZ 3.20–0.96 ARA · 0.3 goals under 4.5
V. Byskov · AZ
totalshots 2L. Schouten · AZ
Pass 45W. Hoedt · AZ
defensiveinterventions 6B. Wilson · ARA
totalshots 1M. Carlier · ARA
defensiveinterventions 10
Line score
| 1H | T | |
|---|---|---|
| AZ | 2 | 2 |
| ARA | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 27'
Goal! Ararat-Armenia 0, AZ 2. Weslley Patati (AZ) left footed shot from the right side of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Seiya Maikuma.
- GOAL1H 21'
Goal! Ararat-Armenia 0, AZ 1. Valdemar Byskov (AZ) from a free kick with a right footed shot to the top right corner.
Game leaders
- Valdemar Byskovtotalshots 2
Lewis SchoutenPass 45- Wesley Hoedtdefensiveinterventions 6
- Bruno Wilsontotalshots 1
- Bruno WilsonPass 18
- Maxence Carlierdefensiveinterventions 10
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| AZ | ARA | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 4 | 7 |
| Yellow Cards | 0 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 2 | 1 |
| Saves | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 66.4 | 33.6 |
| SHOTS | 7 | 1 |
| ON GOAL | 2 | 0 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 262 | 112 |
| Passes | 297 | 153 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Accurate Crosses | 2 | 0 |
| Crosses | 13 | 5 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls | 30 | 31 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 14 | 13 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Blocked Shots | 1 | 1 |
| Effective Tackles | 3 | 6 |
| Tackles | 9 | 13 |
| Tackle % | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 8 |
| Effective Clearances | 5 | 17 |
| Clearances | 5 | 17 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
M. Meerdink anytime goal
Anytime goal · DraftKings
- C. Stengs anytime goalAnytime goal · AZ+21032%
- R. Daal anytime goalAnytime goal · AZ+21032%
- W. Bouziane anytime goalAnytime goal · AZ+37021%
- D. Kasius anytime goalAnytime goal · AZ+47517%
- P. Koopmeiners anytime goalAnytime goal · AZ+50017%
- J. Clasie anytime goalAnytime goal · AZ+60014%
- S. Maikuma anytime goalAnytime goal · AZ+65013%
- R. Ichihara anytime goalAnytime goal · AZ+65013%
- M. De Wit anytime goalAnytime goal · AZ+70013%
- E. Dijkstra anytime goalAnytime goal · AZ+85011%
- M. Chávez anytime goalAnytime goal · AZ+11008%
AZ Alkmaar vs Ararat-Armenia prediction · Oct 22, 2026
The model now projects AZ Alkmaar 3.2, Ararat-Armenia 1.0. Live model win probability: Ararat-Armenia 9%, AZ Alkmaar 78%, draw 13%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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