EuropaLive 45'+1'Municipal Stadium-Poznan

Sunderland at Lech Poznan

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Latest action: SUN attacking

Sunderland

2-0-0 · computer pick

Form LWLLW · 3 PF · 1 PA

Live

Lech Poznan

0-0-2

Form DLDWW · 8 PA

SUN 63%Draw 21%LECH 16%

Model: SUN 2.26–1.07 LECH · live-adjusted

DraftKingsLiveas of 12:34 PM CT · tap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

LECH win

45%

31% (no-vig)

Total

3.11

2.5

Gap: +14 pts of win %, +0.61 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

The model

How this number was built

SUN 2.26–1.07 LECH · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): LECH att +0.44 / def -0.09 · SUN att +0.19 / def +0.58 · model LECH 1.4–1.7 SUN
Home field
+0.3 goals to LECH
Record
LECH 0-0-2 · SUN 2-0-0
Live residual
75% of pregame scoring still on the clock

Full write-up of the model

Computer

Under 3.5

35%

SUN 2.26–1.07 LECH · 0.2 goals under 3.5

Live stats

M. Fofana · SUN
totalshots 3
L. O'Nien · SUN
Pass 37
N. Mukiele · SUN
defensiveinterventions 5
R. Roefs · SUN
SV 2
P. Walemark · LECH
totalshots 2
T. Yegbe · LECH
Pass 36

Line score

	1H	T
SUN	1	1
LECH	0	0

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 2'
Goal! Lech Poznań 0, Sunderland 1. Tymur Tutierov (Sunderland) header from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Nilson Angulo with a cross.

Game leaders

Malick Fofana
totalshots 3
Luke O'Nien
Pass 37
Nordi Mukiele
defensiveinterventions 5
Robin Roefs
SV 2

Patrick Walemark
totalshots 2
Terry Yegbe
Pass 36
Terry Yegbe
defensiveinterventions 9
Mateusz Lis
SV 7

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SUN	LECH
Fouls	6	4
Yellow Cards	1	0
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	0	1
Corner Kicks	3	1
Saves	2	7
Possession	57.9	42.1
SHOTS	14	6
ON GOAL	8	2
On Target %	0.6	0.3
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	233	154
Passes	270	202
Pass Completion %	0.9	0.8
Accurate Crosses	2	0
Crosses	14	3
Cross %	0.1	0.0
Long Balls	27	32
Accurate Long Balls	6	9
Long Balls %	0.2	0.3
Blocked Shots	1	1
Effective Tackles	3	1
Tackles	3	6
Tackle %	1.0	0.2
Interceptions	5	2
Effective Clearances	7	17
Clearances	7	17

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

B. Brobbey anytime goal
Anytime goal · SUN
+125
44%
W. Isidor anytime goal
Anytime goal · SUN
+135
43%
M. Fofana anytime goal
Anytime goal · SUN
+240
29%
N. Angulo anytime goal
Anytime goal · SUN
+250
29%
C. Rigg anytime goal
Anytime goal · SUN
+300
25%
H. Diarra anytime goal
Anytime goal · SUN
+350
22%
T. Hume anytime goal
Anytime goal · SUN
+425
19%
J. Whittaker anytime goal
Anytime goal · SUN
+500
17%
J. Ahoka anytime goal
Anytime goal · SUN
+600
14%
G. Xhaka anytime goal
Anytime goal · SUN
+750
12%
N. Mukiele anytime goal
Anytime goal · SUN
+750
12%
N. Sadiki anytime goal
Anytime goal · SUN
+950
10%

Sunderland vs Lech Poznan prediction · Oct 22, 2026

The model now projects Sunderland 2.3, Lech Poznan 1.1. Live model win probability: Lech Poznan 16%, Sunderland 63%, draw 21%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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