Torreense at Ferencvaros
HT · Paramount+
Latest action: TOR attacking
Model: TOR 1.66–2.96 FER · live-adjusted
Model vs market
Gap: -2 pts of win %, +1.00 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.
The model
How this number was built
TOR 1.66–2.96 FER · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): FER att +0.38 / def +0.31 · TOR att -0.05 / def -0.09 · model FER 2.6–0.9 TOR
- Home field+0.3 goals to FER
- RecordFER 2-0-0 · TOR 1-0-1
- Live residual75% of pregame scoring still on the clock
TOR 1.66–2.96 FER · 0.1 goals over 4.5
M. Drammeh · TOR
totalshots 3A. Alfaro · TOR
Pass 15V. Feltes · TOR
defensiveinterventions 7L. Paes · TOR
SV 1B. Yusuf · FER
totalshots 4N. Zohoré · FER
Pass 40
Line score
| 1H | T | |
|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 1 |
| FER | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 23'
Goal! Ferencváros 1, Torreense 1. Manu Pozo (Torreense) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Javi Vázquez with a cross.
- GOAL1H 20'
Goal! Ferencváros 1, Torreense 0. Bamidele Yusuf (Ferencváros) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner.
Game leaders
- Musa Drammehtotalshots 3
- Alejandro AlfaroPass 15
- Volnei Feltesdefensiveinterventions 7
- Lucas PaesSV 1
- Bamidele Isa Yusuftotalshots 4
- Nathan ZohoréPass 40
- Mariano Gómezdefensiveinterventions 6
- Dániel RadnótiSV 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TOR | FER | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 6 | 6 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 2 | 3 |
| Saves | 1 | 3 |
| Possession | 32.5 | 67.5 |
| SHOTS | 6 | 6 |
| ON GOAL | 4 | 2 |
| On Target % | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 83 | 219 |
| Passes | 123 | 265 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 4 | 4 |
| Crosses | 11 | 12 |
| Cross % | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 29 | 20 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 12 | 5 |
| Long Balls % | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Blocked Shots | 0 | 1 |
| Effective Tackles | 5 | 3 |
| Tackles | 8 | 3 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 6 |
| Effective Clearances | 22 | 6 |
| Clearances | 22 | 6 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- F. Kovacevic anytime goalAnytime goal · FER+12045%
- L. Joseph anytime goalAnytime goal · FER+13543%
- J. Levi anytime goalAnytime goal · FER+17037%
- K. Zachariassen anytime goalAnytime goal · FER+18036%
- V. Birmancevic anytime goalAnytime goal · FER+21032%
- D. Arzani anytime goalAnytime goal · FER+24029%
- P. Rommens anytime goalAnytime goal · FER+38021%
- T. Raemaekers anytime goalAnytime goal · FER+42519%
- C. O'Dowda anytime goalAnytime goal · FER+45018%
- E. Botka anytime goalAnytime goal · FER+11008%
- Stopira anytime goalAnytime goal · TOR+22006%
Torreense vs Ferencvaros prediction · Oct 22, 2026
The model now projects Torreense 1.7, Ferencvaros 3.0. Live model win probability: Ferencvaros 62%, Torreense 20%, draw 18%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Europa picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day