NCAAFThu 6:00 PM CTKidd Brewer Stadium

James Madison Dukes at App State Mountaineers

TV · ESPNU

Thu 6:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

JMU -10.5

53%

JMU 34.08–22.29 APP

James Madison Dukes

7-0 · W7 · computer pick

300 PF · 112 PA

34.08

Projected

App State Mountaineers

4-2 · W1

177 PF · 131 PA

22.29

JMU 77%APP 23%

Projected JMU 34.08–22.29 APP

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

JMU -14.5

JMU -10.5

Total

56.1

56.5

Gap: -4.0 margin, -0.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: JMU vs APP

The model

How this number was built

JMU 34.08–22.29 APP · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
APP -8.9 vs JMU +7.0 · pred margin -11.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +0.4 vs +14.1 · model APP 18.5–36.6 JMU
Home field
+3.0 pts to APP
Record
APP 4-2 · JMU 7-0
Market prior
Blended 68% toward JMU -10.5 / total 56.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Camden Coleman
Pass 109/173, 1335 YDS, 13 TD, 1 INT
George Pettaway
Rush 109 CAR, 767 YDS, 7 TD
Corey Scott
Rec 22 REC, 333 YDS, 4 TD

Malachi Singleton
Pass 113/169, 1429 YDS, 7 TD, 2 INT
Jaquari Lewis
Rush 70 CAR, 346 YDS, 8 TD
Sam Pickett III
Rec 26 REC, 411 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	JMU	APP
Points Per Game	42.9	29.5
Total Yards	461.0	421.7
Yards Passing	237.3	267.7
Yards Rushing	223.7	154.0
Points Allowed Per Game	16.0	21.8
Yards Allowed	350.7	352.3
Pass Yards Allowed	236.4	214.5
Rush Yards Allowed	114.3	137.8

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

James Madison vs App State prediction · Oct 22, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is JMU -10.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projects James Madison 34.1, App State 22.3. Model win probability: App State 23%, James Madison 77%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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