NEC Nijmegen at Dinamo Zagreb
HT · Paramount+
Latest action: NEC attacking
Model: NEC 2.80–3.85 DZG · live-adjusted
Model vs market
Gap: -1 pts of win %, +1.04 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.
NEC 2.80–3.85 DZG · 0.2 goals over 6.5
Line score
| 1H | T | |
|---|---|---|
| NEC | 2 | 2 |
| DZG | 2 | 2 |
Player stats
The box score has not posted yet.
NEC vs Dinamo Zagreb prediction · Oct 22, 2026
The model now projects NEC 2.8, Dinamo Zagreb 3.9. Live model win probability: Dinamo Zagreb 54%, NEC 30%, draw 16%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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