Marseille at SK Sturm Graz
HT · Paramount+
Latest action: STG attacking
Model: OLM 0.97–2.11 STG · live-adjusted
Model vs market
Gap: +11 pts of win %, -0.72 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.
OLM 0.97–2.11 STG · 0.4 goals under 3.5
Line score
| 1H | T | |
|---|---|---|
| OLM | 0 | 0 |
| STG | 1 | 1 |
Player stats
The box score has not posted yet.
Marseille vs Sturm Graz prediction · Oct 22, 2026
The model now projects Marseille 1.0, Sturm Graz 2.1. Live model win probability: Sturm Graz 62%, Marseille 16%, draw 22%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Europa picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day