Celta Vigo at Celtic
TV · Paramount+
At lock CEV 1.06–1.50 CEL · CEV by 0.1 goals vs CEV +0.5
At lock: projected CEV 1.06–1.50 CEL
Model vs market
Gap: -1 pts of win %, +0.40 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.
Celta Vigo vs Celtic prediction · Oct 22, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CEV +0.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Celta Vigo 1.1, Celtic 1.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Celtic 46%, Celta Vigo 26%, draw 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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