EuropaThu 2:00 PM CTGeorgios Karaiskakis Stadium

Sparta Prague at Olympiacos

TV · Paramount+

Thu 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

56%

At lock SPP 0.53–1.89 OLY · 0.1 goals under 2.5

Players

T. Guddal · SPP
Defenses
S. Hezze · OLY
Midfield

Sparta Prague

1-1-0

Form DWLWL · 5 PF · 2 PA

0.53

Projected

Olympiacos

2-0-0

Form DWWWW · 3 PF · 1 PA

1.89

SPP 9%Draw 22%OLY 69%

At lock: projected SPP 0.53–1.89 OLY · most likely 0–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

OLY win

64%

81% (no-vig)

Total

1.95

2.5

Gap: -17 pts of win %, -0.55 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

The model

How this number was built

SPP 0.53–1.89 OLY · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): OLY att -0.16 / def +0.75 · SPP att +0.16 / def +0.11 · model OLY 1.2–0.7 SPP
Home field
+0.3 goals to OLY
Record
OLY 2-0-0 · SPP 1-1-0
Market prior
Blended 85% toward OLY -200 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Tobias Guddal
goals 2
Tobias Guddal
goalsleaders 2

Santiago Hezze
goals 1
Santiago Hezze
goalsleaders 1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

R. Yaremchuk anytime goal
Anytime goal · OLY
+125
44%
G. Martins anytime goal
Anytime goal · OLY
+235
30%
R. Freuler anytime goal
Anytime goal · OLY
+650
13%
J. Mercado anytime goal
Anytime goal · SPP
+650
13%
G. Puerta anytime goal
Anytime goal · OLY
+800
11%
S. Eneme anytime goal
Anytime goal · SPP
+1000
9%
H. Sochurek anytime goal
Anytime goal · SPP
+1000
9%
M. Saliakas anytime goal
Anytime goal · OLY
+1100
8%
S. Hezze anytime goal
Anytime goal · OLY
+1100
8%
P. Retsos anytime goal
Anytime goal · OLY
+1500
6%
B. Onyemaechi anytime goal
Anytime goal · OLY
+1500
6%
M. Holmgren Pedersen anytime goal
Anytime goal · OLY
+1900
6%

Sparta vs Olympiacos prediction · Oct 22, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Sparta 0.5, Olympiacos 1.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Olympiacos 69%, Sparta 9%, draw 22%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Europa picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day