EuropaThu 2:00 PM CTVitality Stadium

AC Milan at AFC Bournemouth

TV · CBSSN

Thu 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

BOU -0.5

51%

At lock MIL 1.00–1.58 BOU · BOU by 0.1 goals vs BOU -0.5

Players

A. Cissè · MIL
Midfield
Rayan · BOU
Forwards

AC Milan

1-0-1

Form DWDWL · 4 PF · 2 PA

1.00

Projected

AFC Bournemouth

2-0-0 · computer pick

Form DWLLW · 5 PF · 1 PA

1.58

MIL 23%Draw 28%BOU 50%

At lock: projected MIL 1.00–1.58 BOU · most likely 1–1 · likeliest BOU -0.5 score 0–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

BOU win

72%

68% (no-vig)

Total

2.99

2.5

Gap: +4 pts of win %, +0.49 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

The model

How this number was built

MIL 1.00–1.58 BOU · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): BOU att +0.64 / def +0.66 · MIL att +0.40 / def +0.43 · model BOU 2.0–1.0 MIL
Home field
+0.3 goals to BOU
Record
BOU 2-0-0 · MIL 1-0-1
Market prior
Blended 85% toward BOU -115 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Alphadjo Cissè
goals 3
Alphadjo Cissè
goalsleaders 3

Rayan
goals 2
Rayan
goalsleaders 2

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

M. Tavernier anytime goal
Anytime goal · BOU
+215
32%
C. Pulisic anytime goal
Anytime goal · MIL
+255
28%
J. Kluivert anytime goal
Anytime goal · BOU
+260
28%
F. Camarda anytime goal
Anytime goal · MIL
+310
24%
D. Brooks anytime goal
Anytime goal · BOU
+330
23%
A. Adli anytime goal
Anytime goal · BOU
+350
22%
R. Christie anytime goal
Anytime goal · BOU
+400
20%
R. Loftus-Cheek anytime goal
Anytime goal · MIL
+450
18%
O. Hutchinson anytime goal
Anytime goal · MIL
+500
17%
D. Moreira anytime goal
Anytime goal · MIL
+500
17%
A. Rabiot anytime goal
Anytime goal · MIL
+550
15%
T. Adams anytime goal
Anytime goal · BOU
+750
12%

Milan vs Bournemouth prediction · Oct 22, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is BOU -0.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Milan 1.0, Bournemouth 1.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Bournemouth 50%, Milan 23%, draw 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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