EuropaThu 2:00 PM CTGSP Stadium

Benfica at Omonia Nicosia

TV · Paramount+

Thu 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

OMON +1.5

56%

At lock SLB 2.35–1.04 OMON · OMON by 0.2 goals vs OMON +1.5

Players

J. Durán · SLB
Forwards
J. Balkovec · OMON
Defenses

Benfica

2-0-0

Form DWLWW · 6 PF · 1 PA

2.35

Projected

Omonia Nicosia

2-0-0 · computer pick

Form DWWLW · 4 PF

1.04

SLB 65%Draw 20%OMON 15%

At lock: projected SLB 2.35–1.04 OMON · most likely 2–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

OMON win

45%

13% (no-vig)

Total

2.80

3.5

Gap: +33 pts of win %, -0.70 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

The model

How this number was built

SLB 2.35–1.04 OMON · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): OMON att +0.29 / def +0.55 · SLB att +0.71 / def +0.53 · model OMON 1.3–1.5 SLB
Home field
+0.3 goals to OMON
Record
OMON 2-0-0 · SLB 2-0-0
Market prior
Blended 85% toward SLB -330 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jhon Durán
goals 2
Jhon Durán
goalsleaders 2

Jure Balkovec
goals 1
Jure Balkovec
goalsleaders 1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

G. Prestianni anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+115
47%
J. Kaminski anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+185
35%
G. Sudakov anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+200
33%
D. Lukébakio anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+215
32%
C. Echeverri anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+215
32%
R. Silva anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+285
26%
F. Aursnes anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+285
26%
A. Schjelderup anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+285
26%
L. Barreiro anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+340
23%
F. Tanase anytime goal
Anytime goal · OMON
+400
20%
S. El Karouani anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+450
18%
J. Montnor anytime goal
Anytime goal · OMON
+550
15%

Benfica vs Omonia prediction · Oct 22, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is OMON +1.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Benfica 2.4, Omonia 1.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Omonia 15%, Benfica 65%, draw 20%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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