EuropaThu 2:00 PM CTPreZero Arena

Lyon at TSG Hoffenheim

TV · Paramount+

Thu 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

LYON +0.5

54%

At lock LYON 1.59–1.92 TSG · LYON by 0.2 goals vs LYON +0.5

Players

K. Nakamura · LYON
Forwards
K. Machida · TSG
Defenses

Lyon

2-0-0 · computer pick

Form DWLWW · 5 PF · 3 PA

1.59

Projected

TSG Hoffenheim

0-0-2

Form DLLLL · 2 PF · 5 PA

1.92

LYON 31%Draw 24%TSG 45%

At lock: projected LYON 1.59–1.92 TSG · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

TSG win

37%

62% (no-vig)

Total

3.53

3.5

Gap: -25 pts of win %, +0.03 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

The model

How this number was built

LYON 1.59–1.92 TSG · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): TSG att +0.25 / def -0.07 · LYON att +0.42 / def +0.37 · model TSG 1.4–2.1 LYON
Home field
+0.3 goals to TSG
Record
TSG 0-0-2 · LYON 2-0-0
Market prior
Blended 85% toward TSG +105 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Keito Nakamura
goals 1
Keito Nakamura
goalsleaders 1

Koki Machida
goals 1
Koki Machida
goalsleaders 1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

A. Kramaric anytime goal
Anytime goal · TSG
+160
38%
F. Asllani anytime goal
Anytime goal · TSG
+180
36%
A. Hlozek anytime goal
Anytime goal · TSG
+200
33%
T. Lemperle anytime goal
Anytime goal · TSG
+215
32%
A. Daghim anytime goal
Anytime goal · TSG
+225
31%
M. Moerstedt anytime goal
Anytime goal · TSG
+225
31%
E. Nuamah anytime goal
Anytime goal · LYON
+240
29%
K. Nakamura anytime goal
Anytime goal · LYON
+285
26%
K. Boudache anytime goal
Anytime goal · LYON
+300
25%
A. Prass anytime goal
Anytime goal · TSG
+360
22%
N. Nartey anytime goal
Anytime goal · LYON
+370
21%
C. Tolisso anytime goal
Anytime goal · LYON
+390
20%

Lyon vs Hoffenheim prediction · Oct 22, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is LYON +0.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Lyon 1.6, Hoffenheim 1.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Hoffenheim 45%, Lyon 31%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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