EuropaThu 2:00 PM CTStadion Miejski Bialystok

Anderlecht at Jagiellonia Bialystok

TV · Paramount+

Thu 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

JAG +0.5

54%

At lock AND 1.44–1.07 JAG · JAG by 0.1 goals vs JAG +0.5

Players

M. Cvetkovic · AND
Forwards
R. Conceição · JAG
Defenses

Anderlecht

0-0-2

Form DWWLW · 1 PF · 3 PA

1.44

Projected

Jagiellonia Bialystok

1-0-1 · computer pick

Form DLWWD · 4 PF · 3 PA

1.07

AND 44%Draw 29%JAG 27%

At lock: projected AND 1.44–1.07 JAG · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

JAG win

59%

42% (no-vig)

Total

2.59

2.5

Gap: +16 pts of win %, +0.09 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

The model

How this number was built

AND 1.44–1.07 JAG · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): JAG att +0.16 / def +0.24 · AND att +0.10 / def +0.27 · model JAG 1.5–1.1 AND
Home field
+0.3 goals to JAG
Record
JAG 1-0-1 · AND 0-0-2
Market prior
Blended 85% toward AND +125 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Mihajlo Cvetkovic
goals 1
Mihajlo Cvetkovic
goalsleaders 1

Rodrigo Conceição
goals 1
Rodrigo Conceição
goalsleaders 1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

D. Sikan anytime goal
Anytime goal · AND
+195
34%
M. Cvetkovic anytime goal
Anytime goal · AND
+205
33%
M. Winkler anytime goal
Anytime goal · AND
+250
29%
T. Aasgaard anytime goal
Anytime goal · AND
+260
28%
O. Antman anytime goal
Anytime goal · AND
+295
25%
M. Stroeykens anytime goal
Anytime goal · AND
+390
20%
T. Degreef anytime goal
Anytime goal · AND
+400
20%
A. Klynge anytime goal
Anytime goal · JAG
+850
11%
E. Llansana anytime goal
Anytime goal · AND
+900
10%
A. Romeo anytime goal
Anytime goal · AND
+1000
9%
M. Kana anytime goal
Anytime goal · AND
+1500
6%
L. Augustinsson anytime goal
Anytime goal · AND
+2500
6%

Anderlecht vs Jagiellonia prediction · Oct 22, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is JAG +0.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Anderlecht 1.4, Jagiellonia 1.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Jagiellonia 27%, Anderlecht 44%, draw 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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