RB Salzburg at NK Celje
TV · Paramount+
At lock SLZ 2.39–1.07 NKC · 0.0 goals under 3.5
Data-Driven Pick · H. Tabakovic anytime goal
At lock: projected SLZ 2.39–1.07 NKC
Model vs market
Gap: +23 pts of win %, -0.27 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.
RB Salzburg vs NK Celje prediction · Oct 22, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected RB Salzburg 2.4, NK Celje 1.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: NK Celje 15%, RB Salzburg 65%, draw 20%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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