EuropaThu 2:00 PM CTArasen Stadion

Real Sociedad at Lillestrom

TV · Paramount+

Thu 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

55%

At lock RSO 2.40–1.03 LSK · 0.1 goals under 3.5

Players

S. Gómez · RSO
Forwards
T. Lehne Olsen · LSK
Forwards

Data-Driven Pick · M. Oyarzabal anytime goal

-105

Real Sociedad

0-1-1

Form DDWWL · 2 PF · 3 PA

2.40

Projected

Lillestrom

0-1-1

Form DDDLL · 2 PF · 3 PA

1.03

RSO 66%Draw 19%LSK 14%

At lock: projected RSO 2.40–1.03 LSK · most likely 2–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

LSK win

37%

18% (no-vig)

Total

3.10

3.5

Gap: +19 pts of win %, -0.40 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

The model

How this number was built

RSO 2.40–1.03 LSK · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): LSK att -0.20 / def +0.06 · RSO att +0.45 / def +0.08 · model LSK 1.2–1.9 RSO
Home field
+0.3 goals to LSK
Record
LSK 0-1-1 · RSO 0-1-1
Market prior
Blended 85% toward RSO -245 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Sergio Gómez
goals 1
Sergio Gómez
goalsleaders 1

Thomas Lehne Olsen
goals 2
Thomas Lehne Olsen
goalsleaders 2

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

M. Oyarzabal anytime goal

-11052%

Anytime goal · DraftKings

G. Guedes anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSO
+160
38%
G. Carrera anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSO
+180
36%
L. Sucic anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSO
+185
35%
J. Ochieng anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSO
+245
29%
A. Zakharyan anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSO
+280
26%
A. Barrenetxea anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSO
+295
25%
C. Soler anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSO
+330
23%
T. Kubo anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSO
+350
22%
D. Bassi anytime goal
Anytime goal · LSK
+700
13%
A. Lebarbier anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSO
+850
11%
J. Gorrotxategi anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSO
+850
11%

Real Sociedad vs Lillestrom prediction · Oct 22, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Real Sociedad 2.4, Lillestrom 1.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Lillestrom 14%, Real Sociedad 66%, draw 19%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Europa picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day