EuropaThu 2:00 PM CTDoosan Arena

Levski Sofia at Viktoria Plzen

TV · Paramount+

Thu 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

56%

At lock LEV 0.95–1.47 PLZ · 0.1 goals under 2.5

Players

Reinaldo · LEV
Forwards
D. Visinský · PLZ
Midfield

Levski Sofia

0-1-1

Form DLLDW · 1 PF · 2 PA

0.95

Projected

Viktoria Plzen

0-0-2

Form DLWLL · 1 PF · 5 PA

1.47

LEV 23%Draw 29%PLZ 48%

At lock: projected LEV 0.95–1.47 PLZ · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

PLZ win

66%

73% (no-vig)

Total

1.98

2.5

Gap: -7 pts of win %, -0.52 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

The model

How this number was built

LEV 0.95–1.47 PLZ · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): PLZ att +0.09 / def +0.38 · LEV att -0.25 / def +0.31 · model PLZ 1.3–0.7 LEV
Home field
+0.3 goals to PLZ
Record
PLZ 0-0-2 · LEV 0-1-1
Market prior
Blended 85% toward PLZ -135 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Reinaldo
goals 1
Reinaldo
goalsleaders 1

Denis Visinský
goals 1
Denis Visinský
goalsleaders 1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

M. Vydra anytime goal
Anytime goal · PLZ
+160
38%
P. Adu anytime goal
Anytime goal · PLZ
+180
36%
M. Toure anytime goal
Anytime goal · PLZ
+180
36%
D. Visinský anytime goal
Anytime goal · PLZ
+240
29%
A. Memic anytime goal
Anytime goal · PLZ
+250
29%
C. Souare anytime goal
Anytime goal · PLZ
+320
24%
A. Sojka anytime goal
Anytime goal · PLZ
+370
21%
M. Doski anytime goal
Anytime goal · PLZ
+550
15%
L. Cerv anytime goal
Anytime goal · PLZ
+700
13%
A. Gabriel anytime goal
Anytime goal · PLZ
+1100
8%
M. Grujic anytime goal
Anytime goal · LEV
+1300
7%
S. Dweh anytime goal
Anytime goal · PLZ
+1400
7%

Levski Sofia vs Viktoria Plzen prediction · Oct 22, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Levski Sofia 0.9, Viktoria Plzen 1.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Viktoria Plzen 48%, Levski Sofia 23%, draw 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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