Süper LigFri 12:00 PM CTKirbiyik Holding Stadyumu

Kocaelispor at Alanyaspor

Fri 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

58%

At lock KOC 0.95–1.40 ALA · 0.2 goals under 2.5

Players

B. Kutlu · KOC
Midfield
G. Makouta · ALA
Midfield

Kocaelispor

4-0-4

Form DLWLW · 9 PF · 8 PA

0.95

Projected

Alanyaspor

3-3-2

Form DDWDW · 8 PF · 9 PA

1.40

KOC 24%Draw 30%ALA 46%

At lock: projected KOC 0.95–1.40 ALA · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

ALA win

59%

68% (no-vig)

Total

2.03

2.5

Gap: -9 pts of win %, -0.47 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 538 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1951 vs old model 0.2279. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

KOC 0.95–1.40 ALA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ALA att -0.20 / def +0.07 · KOC att -0.35 / def +0.12 · model ALA 1.2–0.8 KOC
Home field
+0.3 goals to ALA
Record
ALA 3-3-2 · KOC 4-0-4
Market prior
Blended 66% toward ALA -105 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Berkan Kutlu
goals 3
Berkan Kutlu
goalsleaders 3

Gaïus Makouta
goals 2
Gaïus Makouta
goalsleaders 2

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

M. Elia anytime goal
Anytime goal · ALA
+265
27%
I. Hagi anytime goal
Anytime goal · ALA
+360
22%
F. Hadergjonaj anytime goal
Anytime goal · ALA
+550
15%
Maestro anytime goal
Anytime goal · ALA
+900
10%
F. Aliti anytime goal
Anytime goal · ALA
+1700
6%
Show anytime goal
Anytime goal · KOC
+2000
6%
M. Maglica anytime goal
Anytime goal · KOC
+2000
6%

Kocaelispor vs Alanyaspor prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 58% model probability. The model projected Kocaelispor 0.9, Alanyaspor 1.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Alanyaspor 46%, Kocaelispor 24%, draw 30%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Süper Lig picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day