Süper LigMon 11:00 AM CTEstadio Caykur Didi

Trabzonspor at Caykur Rizespor

Mon 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

51%

At lock TRAB 1.62–1.08 CAY · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

M. Salah · TRAB
Forward
A. Sowe · CAY
Forward

Data-Driven Pick · M. Salah anytime goal

+100

Trabzonspor

5-1-2

Form DWWWW · 18 PF · 5 PA

1.62

Projected

Caykur Rizespor

3-1-4

Form DLDWL · 8 PF · 11 PA

1.08

TRAB 49%Draw 24%CAY 27%

At lock: projected TRAB 1.62–1.08 CAY · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 2–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

CAY win

37%

35% (no-vig)

Total

3.12

3.5

Gap: +2 pts of win %, -0.38 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 538 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1951 vs old model 0.2279. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

TRAB 1.62–1.08 CAY · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CAY att -0.08 / def -0.12 · TRAB att +0.26 / def +0.18 · model CAY 1.3–1.9 TRAB
Home field
+0.3 goals to CAY
Record
CAY 3-1-4 · TRAB 5-1-2
Market prior
Blended 66% toward TRAB -110 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Mohamed Salah
goals 8
Mohamed Salah
goalsleaders 8

Ali Sowe
goals 2
Ali Sowe
goalsleaders 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TRAB	CAY
Goal Difference	13	-3
Total Goals	18	8
Assists	13	6
Goals Against	5	11

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

M. Salah anytime goal

+10050%

Anytime goal · DraftKings

P. Onuachu anytime goal
Anytime goal · TRAB
+120
45%
G. Borrelli anytime goal
Anytime goal · CAY
+240
29%
V. Mihaila anytime goal
Anytime goal · CAY
+295
25%
A. Simsir anytime goal
Anytime goal · TRAB
+330
23%
Fabinho anytime goal
Anytime goal · TRAB
+650
13%
Z. Ariss anytime goal
Anytime goal · CAY
+1100
8%
T. Jabol-Folcarelli anytime goal
Anytime goal · TRAB
+1300
7%
S. Akaydin anytime goal
Anytime goal · TRAB
+1300
7%
S. Savic anytime goal
Anytime goal · TRAB
+1900
6%
S. Lopes Cabral anytime goal
Anytime goal · TRAB
+1900
6%
S. Bakayoko anytime goal
Anytime goal · CAY
+1800
6%

Trabzonspor vs Caykur Rizespor prediction · Oct 26, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Trabzonspor 1.6, Caykur Rizespor 1.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Caykur Rizespor 27%, Trabzonspor 49%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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