Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland Cavaliers
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At lock MIN 115.31–117.80 CLE · CLE by 2.5 pts vs MIN +3.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected MIN 115.31–117.80 CLE
Model vs market
Gap: -3.4 margin, +2.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIN vs CLE
Timberwolves vs Cavaliers prediction · Oct 26, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MIN +3.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Timberwolves 115.3, Cavaliers 117.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Cavaliers 58%, Timberwolves 42%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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