Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat
TV · NBA TV
At lock DAL 115.57–123.13 MIA · 2.2 pts over 236.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock · Play of the Day: Over 236.5 locked at 56% when posted
Data-Driven Pick · C. Flagg Over 21.5 pts
At lock: projected DAL 115.57–123.13 MIA
Model vs market
Gap: -3.1 margin, +7.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: DAL vs MIA
Mavericks vs Heat prediction · Oct 26, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 236.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Mavericks 115.6, Heat 123.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Heat 74%, Mavericks 26%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day