Lyon at Paris Saint-Germain
At lock LYON 1.05–2.39 PSG · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected LYON 1.05–2.39 PSG
Model vs market
Gap: -13 pts of win %, -0.19 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,352 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2062 vs old model 0.2122 vs closing line 0.2013. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
Lyon vs PSG prediction · Oct 26, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Lyon 1.1, PSG 2.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: PSG 66%, Lyon 15%, draw 20%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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