Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
TV · Fox
At lock MIL 4.34–3.18 TB · MIL by 1.2 runs vs TB +1.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
J. Chourio · MIL
Left fieldJ. Bauers · MIL
First baseB. Turang · MIL
Second baseC. Simpson · TB
Left fieldJ. Caminero · TB
Third base
Data-Driven Pick · R. Gasser Under 3.5 hits allowed
At lock: projected MIL 4.34–3.18 TB · most likely 4–3
Model vs market
Gap: -7 pts of win %, +1.71 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2026, 9,733 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2448 vs old model 0.2486. No free archive of MLB closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Totals now also use official game-time weather (temperature and wind in/out from the MLB feed): total-runs error fell 3.532 → 3.516 runs/game (MAE) over 2023–2026, lower in every season. A plate-appearance model (team batting vs starter/bullpen rates through a base-out run-expectancy solve) was tested and didn't beat this one, so it is not used.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIL vs TB
The model
How this number was built
MIL 4.34–3.18 TB · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. runs +0.56 vs +1.22 · SP FIP 4.07 vs 4.26 · model TB 4.2–4.5 MIL
- Home field+0.1 runs to TB
- RecordTB 98-64 · MIL 103-59
- Market priorBlended 70% toward TB -118 / total 7
Probable pitchers
Season leaders
Jackson ChourioAVG .291
Jake BauersHR 26
Brice TurangRBI 100- Brice Turangmlbrating 557.8
Chandler SimpsonAVG .306
Junior CamineroHR 42- Junior CamineroRBI 101
- Junior Camineromlbrating 630.8
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MIL | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| Batting | ||
| R | 832 | 736 |
| H | 1422 | 1405 |
| RBI | 788 | 700 |
| HR | 154 | 169 |
| BB | 668 | 514 |
| K | 1383 | 1145 |
| SB | 162 | 164 |
| 2B | 279 | 230 |
| 3B | 26 | 22 |
| AB | 5502 | 5444 |
| AVG | .258 | .258 |
| OBP | .341 | .326 |
| SLG | .403 | .402 |
| OPS | .743 | .728 |
| SF | 45 | 42 |
| HBP | 40 | 58 |
| CS | 54 | 54 |
| XBH | 459 | 421 |
| PA | 6299 | 6106 |
| P | 25065 | 22987 |
| TB | 2215 | 2186 |
| GIDP | 99 | 111 |
| SH | 37 | 45 |
| IBB | 29 | 27 |
| Pitching | ||
| IP | 1446.2 | 1443.0 |
| H | 1186 | 1235 |
| R | 618 | 650 |
| ER | 565 | 594 |
| BB | 518 | 409 |
| K | 1544 | 1322 |
| HR | 171 | 201 |
| P | 23650 | 22561 |
| WHIP | 1.18 | 1.14 |
| ERA | 3.51 | 3.70 |
| TBF | 5991 | 5939 |
| WP | 51 | 43 |
| BK | 6 | 3 |
| BH | 67 | 52 |
| HLD | 87 | 116 |
| SV | 55 | 58 |
| BLSV | 21 | 19 |
| W | 103 | 98 |
| L | 59 | 64 |
| IR | 186 | 192 |
| IRS | 70 | 62 |
| Fielding | ||
| E | 72 | 92 |
| DP | 279 | 230 |
| A | 1269 | 1275 |
| PO | 4340 | 4329 |
| PB | 8 | 6 |
| CS | 54 | 54 |
| SBA | 162 | 164 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
R. Gasser Under 3.5 hits allowed
Hits allowed · DraftKings
- J. DeLuca Under 0.5 singlesSingles · TB-11952%
- R. Vilade Over 0.5 hitsHits · TB-12051%
- J. Chourio Under 0.5 singlesSingles · MIL-10350%
- J. Caminero Under 1.5 H+R+RBIHits + runs + RBIs · TB-11650%
- F. Peralta Under 1.5 EREarned runs · TB-10150%
Brewers vs Rays prediction · Oct 26, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is TB +1.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Brewers 4.3, Rays 3.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Rays 35%, Brewers 65%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: MLB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day