Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks
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At lock IND 120.40–117.22 MIL · 1.9 pts under 239.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected IND 120.40–117.22 MIL
Model vs market
Gap: +4.3 margin, -7.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: IND vs MIL
Pacers vs Bucks prediction · Oct 26, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 239.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Pacers 120.4, Bucks 117.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Bucks 40%, Pacers 60%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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